Once upon a time there was a special fund of 100 billion euros. So began a beautiful dream for the Bundeswehr in March, which is now being overtaken by reality.
While the turnaround proclaimed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz was seen as an opportunity to strengthen the operational capability and combat strength of the naval and naval air forces, nine months later disillusionment has set in. It was clear to naval personnel anyway that the Bundeswehr special fund would not significantly increase the number of flagstaffs. The option of two more Class 126 frigates and the multi-purpose combat boats (naval battalion) would have slightly increased the fleet's fleet - and the promised "additional maritime reconnaissance aircraft" would have slightly increased the flying fleet. In any case, the hope of procuring additional K130 corvettes would have amounted to a zero-sum game as far as the number of seagoing naval units was concerned. The continuation of the second batch was only intended to replace the five corvettes from the first. But it could be worse!
What was inside
But right from the start. According to the Act on the Financing of the Bundeswehr and the Establishment of a "Special Fund for the Bundeswehr" and the amendment to the Federal Budget Ordinance of 1 July 2022, these naval projects were budgeted for:
a) Corvette K130
b) Frigate F126
c) Future Naval Strike Missile (FNSM)
d) Anti-aircraft missile for submarine (IDAS)
e) Underwater localisation (Sonix)
f) Multi-purpose combat boats (sea battalion)
g) Successor rigid hull inflatable boat (RHIB) 1010
h) U 212CD
i) Procurement of additional maritime patrol aircraft
And what was left inside
The 2023 federal budget was adopted in December 2022. What became known from the deliberations is sobering!
Overwater - out of the dream
It has now become clear that the option for two further Frigates of the F126 class will not be drawn for the time being and will be postponed to later financial years. The second lot of the Corvettes K130 will only be supplemented by a sixth unit. This means that two initial financing expectations have already been cancelled.
Underwater - the air is out
Hopes for two additional submarines of the future class have also been dashed U212CD. Parliamentary sources have revealed that thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (tkMS) is said to have responded to the Ministry of Defence's request at the beginning of March for bids for up to six more submarines of this type - although they were not taken any further due to a lack of budget funds. The outlines of a submarine flotilla of at best six units are thus emerging: 2 x 212A (the two stragglers from the first batch), plus 2 x U212CD from the German-Norwegian cooperation plus 2 x U212CD from the regular defence budget to replace the first 4 U212A boats. Or if the latter two don't come either, then just 2 new ones, plus 2 old ones and 2 very old ones (all 4 of which are in urgent need of modernisation!).
Speaking of submarines: On the IDAS missile system (Interactive Defence & Attack System for Submarines) will have to wait a little longer. Although its development will continue, it will no longer be procured from the special fund, but would have to be funded from Section 14 in later years.
Only what flies, flies!
The formula "further maritime patrol aircraft" used in the economic plan of the federal budget is concretised to three units. This means that Nordholz is likely to have a total of eight P-8A Poseidon five had already been approved in the budget decisions of summer 2021.
And what else!
For more than 300 million euros, 75 Sea-target missiles RBS 15 will be procured.
The procurement of an additional supply unit is planned for the task force suppliers. MERZ (Marine Operations and Rescue Centre) is planned; costs 42 million euros, provision by mid-2024.
The naval battalion is authorised to deliver ten Multi-purpose combat boats for 40 million euros. It is currently not possible to say anything about the type and manufacturer of these units, which will be delivered between 2025 and the end of 2027. Parliamentary discussion is scheduled for 2023. However, comparable boats have recently been procured from our neighbours for unit prices of between 2.2 and 3.2 million euros - and it is unlikely to be cheaper in three years' time.
Turning point averted
Only months later, Germany's turnaround was overtaken by a sad reality. The promised financial fireworks collapsed when it became clear that the 100 billion euros had resulted in a commitment authorisation of 81.91 billion euros in the 2022 economic plan for future years. This was written in the Act on the Establishment of a "Special Bundeswehr Fund" (Bundeswehr Special Fund Act - BwSVermG). In any case, it was foreseeable that inflation and energy prices would fuel the price spiral. This made the prioritisation that was already required unavoidable.
It looks sad for the navy
It is true that the operational requirements for maritime reconnaissance aircraft are being met in fragments. But with a view to the sea-going units, one has to ask whether the Bundeswehr's ambitious capability profile and NATO's planning goals can be fulfilled at all before this financial planning backing. According to our information, the Profile targets for the period from 2031 onwards: 15 frigates, 8 corvettes and 8 submarines (although the national planning target was 10 corvettes, i.e. two more). The targeted capability profile cannot be achieved with the current number games: 6 submarines, 6 corvettes - should remain with the conclusions that are now permissible - and the last word on the number of frigates is probably also not yet spoken!
Hans Uwe Mergener
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