2034 - A possible next world war

Elliot Ackerman, Admiral James Stavridis: 2034 A novel of the next World War, PENGUIN PRESS New York 2021, 303 p.

In the mid-1980s, the publication of Tom Clancy's "The Hunt for Red October" and "Red Storm Rising" introduced a new genre to the literary world: The influence of new technologies on military operations and their impact on political decisions. The next step was taken with the books by Peter W. Singer and in particular his book with August Cole "Ghost Fleet. A Novel of the next World War" in 2015, which shows the possible course of future military operations based on technological developments and their consistent implementation in weapon systems. Politicians and their actors are portrayed as being driven rather than acting with foresight.

2021 sees the publication of another book with a narrative thread about new technologies and their use against a hitherto overpowering state, the USA and its navy. Written by Elliot Ackermann, former U.S. Marine and member of the White House staff, and Admiral (ret) James Stavridis, former SACEUR and perennial Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tuft University in the USA, the book describes the decision-making processes in the centres of power of the USA and China in their respective perceptions and misperceptions. The South China Sea and a Freedom of Navigation Patrol of three U.S. Navy destroyers, which the American commander clearly described as a provocation (p. 2), triggered a chain of naval operations that led to rapid escalation and even the use of tactical nuclear weapons by both superpowers. Other regions and their actors follow like wildfire. The elimination of satellites, 5th generation aircraft (F 35) and modern weapons systems through cyber warfare, the disruption of undersea cables and the elimination of political command and control systems on a global scale are listed as examples without taking away the reader's suspense.

Both authors very consciously put their finger on the belief in technology and thus in the superiority of the military, political advisors and acting heads of state. Military simulation games with the background of studies by large consultancy organisations form the basis of their narrative. The unfortunate influence of hardliners in political decision-making bodies gains additional weight through the real experiences of the recent past. The imaginary extrapolation to the year 2034 becomes very credible, the familiar strategy of escalation dominance all the more questionable. The supposed compulsion to save face and "win" an incipient nuclear conflict should make us all realise that in today's world we need other criteria for political dealings with other states than the sole use of the "military hammer".

This book can therefore be recommended reading for all those involved in such decision-making processes. Dealing with China in the future in particular will require a variety of instruments to limit its desire for power. The surprising outcome of this book's narrative should restore a little faith in diplomacy and de-escalation.

Heinz Dieter Jopp Barmstedt, in April 2021