Finding the right balance

The world has not seen a high-intensity naval battle for decades. In the face of the Russian attack on Ukraine, the urgent question now arises as to how naval warfare must be rethought.

You would think that the Russian attack on Ukraine would have made life easier for the planners. After all, many uncertainties regarding Russian intentions have now been resolved, albeit painfully, and it is now possible to concentrate properly on adequate defence planning.

However, with new certainties came new questions. Did the West underestimate Putin's dangerousness, but at the same time overestimate the capabilities of his army? Were Russia's actions so specifically geared towards an underestimated Ukraine that nothing can be deduced for a conflict with NATO?

The challenges for maritime defence planners therefore remain unchanged. They must not focus the future on a past war, but they must also not miss the decisive lessons of the Ukraine war for future naval warfare in a multi-domain environment.