The result of the Finnish presidential election run-off on 11 February 2024 leaves no room for doubt; the country's military non-alignment is definitely over and Finnish voters are fully committed to their NATO membership and transatlantic security.
Alexander Stubb, former Prime Minister and member of the conservative National Coalition Party (KOK), narrowly secured victory ahead of Pekka Haavisto from the Green Party. Haavisto played a key role in the accession process and as Foreign Minister signed Finland's historic accession treaty to NATO last year.
Against the backdrop of Russia's brutal war of aggression against Ukraine, both candidates agreed that Finland must take a tough stance against Russia, be an active participant in NATO and continue to support Ukraine.
In addition to strengthening democracy, a narrow majority in the election favoured the candidate who focused more on Finland's security. Throughout the campaign, Stubb emphasised that Finland was electing a "NATO president", a leader who is central to shaping the country's role within the military alliance.
Presidential Palace in Helsinki gets a new landlord. Photo: Wikimedia-CC0
Even though he toned down his rhetoric somewhat after the election and emphasised that the president's main task was to maintain peace, Stubb described NATO as one of the three pillars of Finnish security, alongside a credible national defence and the defence cooperation agreement signed with the United States of America in December 2023.
The election of Stubbs solidifies the changes that have taken place in recent years both in Finnish society and in foreign and security policy. For decades, presidents and a female president have been elected to promote diplomacy and minimise tensions between Moscow and NATO countries. The current election is thus the result of public support for NATO membership, which started after the Russian invasion and reached 82 % at the end of last year.
Stubb, who takes office on 1 March, is now expected to show a comprehensive commitment to NATO. Unlike Haavisto, he had not ruled out the possibility of having nuclear weapons travelling through Finnish territory. At the same time, Stubb, who previously served in the European Parliament and as Vice-President of the European Investment Bank, has called for a more European-focused NATO and stressed that European allies must take responsibility for their own defence capabilities.
And: Finland does not shy away from Russian threatening behaviour and propaganda; a virtue that would also suit the German chancellor's party.
Source: GMF
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