On Friday, the Russian Ministry of Defence published a video sequence on the Telegram messaging service showing the underwater launch of a Kalibr cruise missile from a conventional Kilo III-class submarine in the Black Sea, aimed at Ukraine. Whatever the optics have captured - it has not become a documentary masterpiece! The shots in the semi-darkness, taken at a great distance and correspondingly unclear, do not really confirm the Russian narrative. Nevertheless, this news is worth mentioning because it is the first time that the use of Kalibr from submarines in the Ukraine war has been publicised.
And what else you break
This news was underpinned by the claim that the Russian air force had succeeded in attacking the production facilities of Ukrainian missile and space technology made by Artiom in Kiev with "precision weapons". So did the Ukrainian armourers have so little confidence in the two-month war - and only became aware of it after the sinking of the "Moskva"?
1,300 cruise missiles already fired
Ukraine's deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, confirmed that the Russian invaders had already fired more than 1,300 cruise missiles at Ukrainian territory. What may sound like an imminent sell-out of the Russian missile arsenal is, according to her findings, only half of the initially estimated threat potential. The threat is therefore diminishing as the Russian forces wear down, but there is still an alarming amount of ammunition available.
Russian SSK Kilo-III class "Novorossiysk" of the Black Sea Fleet. Photo: Royal Netherlands Navy
Or is it running out after all?
However, the fact that the submarines are now also being used to fire on land targets in Ukraine is also a possible indication that reserves are now being utilised. After all, launching cruise missiles via torpedo tubes and launching them on the surface - only to have to reload them later in the opposite direction - is not the simplest of procedures!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1519965287789084672
Link to tweet RusMoD: Kalibr launch by Kilo-class submarine of the Black Sea Fleet
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It should also be noted that missiles of the "Oniks" type were fired from the territory of Crimea into Ukrainian territory by the coastal missile complex "Bastion" (NATO designation: SS-C-5 "Stooge") of the Russian Black Sea Fleet on 1 May 22 (see this report): https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/14530487 ; a short video has also been included in this message).
The target is said to have been Ukrainian weapons depots with ammunition of US origin.
I think I read a few days ago that there are only 6 submarines in the Black Sea that can fire Kalibr cruise missiles (and presumably had already fired them before this report). However, only 4 missiles can be loaded per ship and usually 2 missiles are fired at the same time. So "2 shots" per ship, then you have to reload in the harbour.
With a total of 1300 cruise missiles fired so far, the submarines therefore IMHO have more propaganda value than military value, or am I wrong?
Thank you for the additional information. It is correct that the Black Sea Fleet included six units of the Kilo III class. However, two of them - "Novorossiysk" and "Krasnodar" - were transferred to the Mediterranean before the outbreak of war and remained there after the Bosporus was closed. They were probably more important for Russia's strategic distribution of forces in this area than in the Black Sea. In any case, the Russian side had assumed that the so-called "special operations" would be of short duration and had therefore probably not primarily relied on submarines as cruise missile carriers. If this was indeed the case, then the tide has fundamentally turned!