A first warning

In view of record order backlogs and the container ship deliveries expected between 2023 and 2025, the industry service Alphaliner has warned of possible overcapacity for the first time. For example, the usual peak season for container shipping in the third quarter of each year only had a much weaker impact in 2022, as was the case in the previous year. Alphaliner reports that many market observers consider these slumps to be less seasonal and more structural. They fear a global recession. War risks, exploding energy costs, political instability and general inflation would have an impact on general consumer spending and thus on global trade volumes, especially for industrial goods. According to WTO forecasts, global trade could continue to lose momentum. On the other hand, not only was extensive new tonnage added to the trades in 2022 alone, but a large number of newbuildings were also ordered.

As a result of this boom in orders over the past two years, the ratio between shipyards' order books and the fleet in service had risen to around 30 per cent worldwide at the end of the third quarter of 2022, compared to nine per cent two years previously. In absolute terms, the current order backlog of around seven million TEU has even surpassed the record set in 2008. At that time, it totalled 6.6 million TEU. "The supply of tonnage could exceed demand again in the coming years, and the liner shipping market could be heading for structural overcapacity," warns Alphaliner in its report. One exception among the shipping companies that are keen to place orders appears to be the Danish Maersk Line, which relinquished its leading position in international container liner shipping to the Swiss-based Italian shipping company Mediterranean Spipping Company (MSC) at the turn of the year. The Danes want to "freeze" their current fleet of almost 4.3 million TEU plus 34 newbuildings with around 400,000 TEU at this level, including their own and chartered ships. The six 17,000 TEU ships recently ordered in South Korea for delivery in 2025 are not intended to expand the fleet, but to replace older units.