China's power ambitions in the Pacific region are growing ever stronger. The United States and its allies are trying to counter this. This increases the risk of armed conflict.
While the Ukraine war is currently the focus of media coverage in Europe, another area of crisis and tension has developed at the other end of the world, in South East Asia. China's rise as a naval power and its aggressive, primarily maritime expansionist endeavours, as well as North Korea's increasingly provocative missile and nuclear tests, have shaped security policy in the Indo-Pacific and transformed it into an area of crisis and tension with growing potential for military escalation. In the process, China is colliding with the ideas of the (still) world power USA, which sees itself as a Pacific nation and has been able to act unchallenged as a power of order in the Far East since 1941. The USA, a global maritime power, sees China's expansion in the Indo-Pacific region as the greatest security and geopolitical challenge of the 21st century and is endeavouring to contain China's expansionist ambitions. China, in turn, accuses the USA of trying to hinder its rise in the world.
Strategic naval armaments
In recent decades, China has rapidly upgraded its navy with strategic foresight. With currently more than 355 ships and submarines, the country has the largest navy in the world and has relegated the US Navy to second place with 298 ships. Due to the rapidly growing capabilities of the Chinese naval forces, the USA will no longer be able to operate unchallenged and at will in the Asia-Pacific region. China is now the world's most productive maritime nation. Its merchant fleet, coast guard and fishing fleet are each the largest in the world. The fishing fleet is also used for surveillance, control and presence tasks in the South and East China Seas.
China also maintains a second paramilitary fleet with around 200 units that are subordinate to various state authorities. These ships are also used in a targeted manner to assert maritime interests and claims in the region. China realises its security policy ideas through sophisticated long-term strategies with countries that are economically, technologically, militarily and infrastructurally inferior. For example, China is endeavouring to cooperate on security issues with ten island states in the South Pacific. The Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Tonga, Fiji and Kiribati have already come under China's sphere of influence. China also wants to extend its maritime reach into the Atlantic and Indian Ocean over the next ten years and is therefore endeavouring to acquire ports in Africa. For example, South Africa conducted a naval manoeuvre with China and Russia off the coast of the port city of Durban and Richards Bay, 180 kilometres away, in February 2023. South Africa has assumed the chairmanship of the Brics Group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) for 2023. The Chinese New Silk Road project with its global direct investments in infrastructure, harbours and energy networks is power politics. China is even co-operating with the Taliban in Afghanistan to develop the oil reserves there. By 2049, China wants to become the "leading nation among the industrialised powers" and become the world leader in economic and power politics.
Chinese H-6 bomber on manoeuvre around Taiwan, photo: MoD Taiwan
Crisis and tension zones
China claims unrestricted sovereignty over 85 per cent of the South China Sea. There it has developed island groups and offshore reefs into military bases and "unsinkable aircraft carriers" and at the same time secured the resources (oil, gas and ore deposits as well as fishing) in the exclusive economic zones there. The protests of the neighbouring states were ignored and the international court rulings that condemned China's claims as contrary to international law were not recognised. In the East China Sea, China is in dispute with Japan over the Senkaku archipelago, which China wants to claim as Chinese territory. China has repeatedly invaded the waters and airspace around the islands with patrol boats and fighter planes, but has always been stopped by Japanese naval forces.
In the South China Sea, the USA is using its regular freedom of navigation operations (Fonops), i.e. the right of free passage, to oppose the annexation of the archipelagos. In doing so, they are invoking the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) from 1982, which is intended to regulate all types of use of the seas. The convention has been signed and ratified by 168 states. Germany joined in 1994, the EU, Russia and China in 1996. Although the USA, Turkey and Israel refer to the agreement, they have not ratified it, which China likes to point out. Dangerous incidents involving Chinese fighter planes and warships repeatedly occur in the Fonops in order to prevent US units from travelling through or flying over Chinese "territorial waters" around the occupied island groups. The operations have now developed into a ritual of mutual protests, which could escalate into military action at any time.
Threat from North Korea
North Korea's provocative missile and nuclear tests and drone missions against South Korea are also contributing to instability in the Asia-Pacific region. They pose a particular threat to South Korea, Japan and the USA. North Korea is continuously expanding its ballistic missile programme, wants to massively increase the number of its nuclear weapons and regularly carries out missile launches with intercontinental missiles. The test missiles have flown over Japan several times. North Korea's ruler Kim Jong-un has announced that he wants to have the world's strongest nuclear force in the future. North Korea has also declared a pre-emptive nuclear strike to be authorised by law. The peace research institute Sipri estimates that North Korea already has more than 20 ready-made nuclear warheads. In view of the threats, South Korea's president has announced that the missile launches would only strengthen security cooperation with the USA and Japan and intensify the joint military manoeuvres in the sea areas around Korea. He has even suggested the possibility of nuclear armament: "If the threat from the North Korean nuclear weapons programme increases, we could deploy [US] tactical nuclear weapons here in South Korea or possess nuclear weapons ourselves."
US aircraft carrier USS Nimitz during the Fonops mission in the South China Sea, photo: US Navy
Risk of escalation Taiwan
China considers the island republic of Taiwan, which lies 130 kilometres off its coast and has a population of 24 million, to be a renegade province that should be united with the mainland according to the one-China principle. Chinese head of state Xi Jinping has declared unification with Taiwan to be the fate of the Chinese nation and has threatened to respond with military force if the island declares independence. He has warned the USA against "playing with fire" if it were to interfere in Taiwan policy. Although the USA has recognised the one-China principle, it considers the status of Taiwan to be "undetermined" and is by no means in favour of a military solution. Instead, they want to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. However, China continues to put the island state under political and military pressure. In August 2022, China carried out a major manoeuvre around Taiwan with naval and air forces, during which blockade and invasion operations against Taiwan were simulated. China fired five ballistic missiles over Taiwan, which landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone. In December 2022, China once again conducted a naval and air manoeuvre off Taiwan, during which 47 Chinese fighter jets and bombers penetrated its air defence zone. In response, US President Joe Biden reaffirmed his commitment to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack and announced further military aid for security tasks totalling USD 4.5 billion over the next five years. The US had already delivered defence equipment worth 2.4 billion dollars to Taiwan in 2020.
In the face of Chinese threats and alarmed by the war of aggression against Ukraine, Taiwan's government has prepared itself for an emergency. Taiwan has initiated a rapid expansion of its defence industry and the procurement of new warships, submarines and guided missiles and wants to acquire the capability for asymmetric warfare. Compulsory military service has been extended from 10 to 16 months. The Taiwan conflict could well lead to a possible military conflict between China and the USA. The crisis scenario is exacerbated by China's protests against the regular passage of US warships through the Taiwan Strait.
Alliances against China
The four major democracies of the Indo-Pacific region, India, the USA, Australia and Japan, are cooperating closely with each other to counter China's expansionist ambitions. To this end, they have joined forces to form the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) maritime security alliance, which the four countries also see as an economic partnership. The Quad states want to establish a joint monitoring system for shipping traffic in the Indo-Pacific in order to better control illegal fishing and maritime militias. This includes Chinese fishing boats in particular, which act as a kind of coastguard to demonstrate Chinese territorial claims in the Pacific region. The focus of the quadripartite alliance is on security co-operation. Representatives have stated: "The Indo-Pacific region is accessible and dynamic, subject to international law and fundamental principles such as freedom of navigation and the peaceful settlement of disputes." Australia, the UK and the USA founded the Aukus defence alliance back in 2021. Aukus provides for close defence cooperation between the three countries. Above all, this includes defence cooperation for the procurement of eight nuclear-powered submarines for the Australian Navy. The three nations also want to work together in the development and procurement of hypersonic weapons and electronic warfare.
Chinese aircraft carrier group manoeuvring around Taiwan, photo: MoD Taiwan
In 2022, Australia and Japan agreed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA). In addition to defence cooperation, the bilateral agreement is primarily aimed at military and security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. In January 2023, Japan and the UK adopted the Japan-UK Reciprocal Access Agreement, which is also based on a security and defence partnership between the two countries. Japan has also developed a new national security strategy in which China is seen as the greatest strategic challenge. It announces a doubling of defence spending and an increase in defence spending to two percent of gross domestic product by 2027. The strategy envisages developing counter-strike capabilities with its own missiles and US cruise missiles that can reach the Chinese coast in order to eliminate enemy missile positions there. Japan and the USA have also expanded their traditional defence cooperation. The US troop presence on Okinawa is being increased. To this end, the US wants to establish a rapid reaction force with 2,000 soldiers that can operate at sea and in the air. Japan and India also conducted their first joint manoeuvre with naval and air forces in January 2023.
France's naval presence
At a security conference in Singapore in 2019, France announced that its navy would in future regularly operate with strong naval units in the Pacific and particularly in the South China Sea in order to counter Chinese maritime expansion. The aim is to work closely with the navies of India, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and the USA. In fact, France has regularly maintained a strong naval presence in the region ever since. "France is an Indo-Pacific power," emphasised President Emmanuel Macron. After all, France has numerous overseas territories in the Indo-Pacific region such as French Polynesia, New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna as well as La Réunion and Mayotte with over 1.7 million inhabitants and huge exclusive economic zones. France has more than 7,000 soldiers, 15 warships and 38 combat aircraft permanently stationed in Asia and Oceania. An aircraft carrier battle group, the CHARLES DE GAULLE, is currently operating in the South China Sea together with the American Navy.
Geopolitical change
The rising tensions between China, the USA and the neighbouring states in the Indo-Pacific region are an expression of the changing geopolitical balance of power. China's aggressive build-up of power and naval armament have provoked a considerable rearmament in the Asia-Pacific region. In recent years, the Southeast Asian states have seen an increasing rise in defence spending. Between 2010 and 2020 alone, regional defence spending rose by over 50 per cent. For the first time, the countries in the region have spent more money on armaments than all NATO countries in Europe. They are investing the most in naval forces. Submarines, frigates, corvettes, patrol boats and unmanned surface, underwater and air vehicles are being procured. The struggle for supremacy in the Indo-Pacific region has created a maritime escalation risk.
Dieter Stockfisch
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