Balticconnector gas leak: sabotage - or bad luck?

A concerted act of Russian-Chinese sabotage? Or simply a maritime mishap?

Finally an official sign from Finland! We have taken some time in the editorial office to gather information from open sources and have waited until the overall picture has become clearer. It's about the damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline and two communication cables on the Baltic seabed at various points between Estonia and Finland, which was discovered on 8 October 2023.

Damaged area on the Balticconnector pipeline. Photo: NBI Finland

What
The Balticconnector gas pipeline runs from Paldiski 30 kilometres west of Tallinn northwards to the Finnish LNG terminal in Inkoo 40 kilometres west of Helsinki and forms a bridge between the pipeline systems coming from Russia in northern Estonia and southern Finland. It is significantly smaller than Nord Stream.

Damaged area on the Balticconnector pipeline. Photo: NBI Finland

Finland's energy dependency on this gas connection is stated to be around 5% and its failure is therefore not considered to be a threat. Initial investigations of the damaged areas revealed indications of external and mechanical causes. However, it will not be possible to carry out repairs until 2024.

Where
The two damaged underwater communication cables are located some distance from the gas pipeline:

Overall picture of the affected supply lines. Graphic: ERR Poland

"E-finest" runs about 20 nautical miles further east, fairly directly north from Tallinn to Helsinki.

The "EE-S1" data cable to Sweden initially runs westwards from Tallinn in the Estonian coastal zone and then jumps from the island of Hijumaa directly westwards towards Stockholm. It shows a damaged area about 80 nautical miles west-southwest of the gas pipeline rupture - and thus about 60 nautical miles from Stockholm.

Transmission faults were detected on the former as early as 8 October, but only a few days later on the Swedish-Estonian fibre optic cable, because it was actually still providing its services, but to a significantly reduced extent, so that in the end a cable break had to be assumed.

Both cables could be restored, according to the operators, but this will also take three to six months.

Who
Initial correlations of time and space with the ship movements on the digital maps of the Gulf of Finland pointed to two vehicles:

- the Russian icebreaking, nuclear-powered container/special cargo ship "Sevmorput" and

- the Chinese container ship "NewNew Polar Bear", registered in Hong Kong.

Nuclear-powered Russian special cargo ship "Sevmorput". Photo: Michael Nitz

The 260 metre long and 62,000 tonne displacement "Sevmorput" is one of the last remaining nuclear cargo ships. It was built in Kerch, Crimea, in the mid-1980s and has reinforced hulls and an icebreaker stem. Her name says it all and is an abbreviation of the Russian name for the "Northern Sea Route" (Severnyj morskoj put) through the Arctic, for whose navigability it is apparently being used again now. When asked by the Finnish investigating authorities, Atomflot, the operator, immediately denied the involvement of the Russian ship in possible incidents in the Gulf of Finland.

Container feeder "NewNew Polar Bear", China. Photo: Finnish Border Guard

The container ship "NewNew Polar Bear" was built in 2004/05 at the Meyer shipyard in Papenburg for the German company Hansa Hamburg Shipping International as the second of a batch of four Eilbek-class container feeders. With 1620 TEU (20" container equivalent), 170 metres in length and a displacement of 24,000 tonnes, they were intended to handle onward distribution to and from the large container terminals. These ships have the highest Finnish-Swedish ice class 1A-Super. The "Reinbek", as it was originally called, has an eventful owner and name history and only ended up with the Chinese company Hainan Xin Xin Yang Shipping in June of this year. In September, she was already sailing westwards along the Arctic North Route as the "NewNew Polar Bear".

When
The AIS data shows both ships over the pipeline at the time of the damage between 01:12 and 01:20 and a little later over the eastern communication cable. During this time frame, a very weak quake was recorded by a seismographic station in Finland. Shortly afterwards, the loss of pressure was registered on land and the pipeline had to be shut down at 02:00.

Here is the video of the aggregated AIS data northwest of Tallinn on the Ingå/Finland - Paldiski/Estonia route.

To the Twitter video

Track reading
Investigations on the seabed revealed a break in the pipeline that indicates an external mechanical impact. The "NewNew Polar Bear" passed this exact location at the time of the seismic and operational anomalies.

Seized evidence Photo: NBI Finland

In the meantime, drag marks up to 4 metres wide have been found on the seabed, leading to the break in the pipeline, as the Finnish investigating authority announced on 24 October 2023. A few metres away (in the direction of travel of the "NewNew Polar Bear"), a torn anchor with a broken-off flukes was found and recovered. A narrower drag mark (chain and/or anchor pole) stretches for dozens of nautical miles along the track of the presumed perpetrator. This is the information provided by the National Bureau of Investigation in Vantaa, Finland.

And that fits: The "NewNew Polar Bear" was indeed missing its port bow anchor when it entered Arkhangelsk/Russia on the White Sea at the latest, and a container rack was leaning recognisably to starboard. The anchor chain was also subsequently found lying on the pier in Saint Petersburg, having arrived from Baltiisk on 8 October. The ship left there again on 12 October, via Kaliningrad (13 October) and on to Arkhangelsk on the White Sea (21 October).

KV "Sortland", Norway Photo: Norwegian Navy

Incidentally, the freighter was eyed suspiciously by the Norwegian coast guard boat "Sortland" as it passed the Norwegian coast and was escorted a short distance through the areas of the national supply lines. The "NewNew Polar Bear" was also escorted past Norway by the "Sevmorput".

When we arrived in Arkhangelsk, all the cameras were focussed on the "NewNew Polar Bear's" anchor fairleads - and lo and behold, the port anchor was gone!

Double game
Since leaving Arkhangelsk on 25 October, the "Sevmorput" has once again been accompanying the "NewNew Polar Bear" on its way along the northern route, breaking free through the autumnal Arctic ice of the Kara Sea and the Vilkitsky Strait along the northern coast of Siberia into the Bering Sea. It is perhaps also worth mentioning that the passage permit has been extended until 15 November, although it is no longer issued in the name of the Chinese operator, but in the name of the Russian logistics service provider Torgmoll in Moscow (and Shanghai), which is committed to the development of the "New Silk Road", among other things.

Finland's Foreign Ministry confirmed on 20 October that it had contacted Russia and China through diplomatic channels regarding the two ships. Moscow immediately denied this, and China called for "objective, fair and professional" investigations into the incident on the part of Finland. In any case, the "NewNew Polar Bear" could not be reached by the authorities or the media.

NATO AWACS. Photo: NATO

Reactions
Also on 20 October, NATO announced through its spokesperson that it had already further increased the number of its reconnaissance and surveillance assets (drones, maritime patrol aircraft, NATO AWACS) and the presence of surface naval assets in the Baltic Sea in order to protect vulnerable infrastructure. The week before, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had emphasised that any deliberate damage to allied supply lines was serious and would not be without consequences. Since the acts of sabotage against the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, military observation of events in the entire Baltic Sea region has already been intensified.

Finally, Latvia's President Edgars Rinkevics am 20 October in the public media about a NATO-led discussion on ways to stop Russian shipping in the Baltic Sea should Russia be found to be behind various incidents of damage to undersea supply lines. NATO has the capabilities to do this, he said, - without having publicly discussed such an option in NATO circles, or agreed on how the enforcement of such an embargo should be set up and implemented, let alone what the consequences of such a move could be, which would bring Baltic trade with Russia's second largest city to a standstill. Even a quick shot from the hip can miss the mark.

Russian reconnaissance ship "Sibiyakov". Photo: topwar.ru

Lead time
It is also interesting to note the observation by the Polish company Rochan Consulting that the Russian reconnaissance vessel "Sibiryakov" (Project 865, 85 metres, 3,000 tonnes), equipped with submersibles, has been in the area of the Balticconnector pipeline at least three times this year and sailed along its north-south line - as a "dark ship", i.e. with its AIS detection and positioning system switched off. Just as it was already possible to research this "Sibiryakov" for the period shortly before the Nord Stream sabotage files in 2022. Coincidences do happen . . !

WHY
It remains unclear whether it was deliberate sabotage or simply a maritime mishap that led to the damage. However, letting an anchor weighing several tonnes slip or losing the entire anchor does not just happen - completely unintentionally, unnoticed and totally silently! What's more, in the 100-nautical-mile-long sea area that the "NewNew Polar Bear" was travelling through at varying depths with its dragging anchor, a few more cables that had suffered damage would certainly have made themselves felt. China as a "player" in the Baltic Sea? Some questions remain unanswered, but the picture is already beginning to take shape!