The always malicious scribblers, addicted click collectors and self-appointed fleet experts out there are forcing the editorial team back to the desk: an explanatory piece - from the pier.
The question of whether the German Navy's Indo-Pacific convoy, consisting of the frigate "Baden-Württemberg" and the task force provider "Frankfurt am Main", should sail through the Red Sea on the way back from its world tour has been raised since the convoy left port on 7 May 2024. It was foreseeable for naval officers that no such passage would take place without an end to the Houthi threat. The decision therefore came as little surprise to the navy and its experts.
Task force provider Frankfurt am Main in Wilhelmshaven. Photo: Bundeswehr/K.Brakensiek
From the beginning: The world watched in horror as Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023. From November 2023, the Houthis targeted ships of the pro-Israeli Western world. Yet another war and its consequences fell at our feet. And the "Ever Given" accident had already shown us what the closure of the Suez Canal meant. The EU responded: with Operation European Union Naval Force - Aspides (EUNAVFOR Aspides), it was decided in December 2023 - in cooperation with the US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian - to respond to the attacks by the Huthi-rebels to react. Germany successfully participated from February 2024 with the frigate "Hessen" (marineforum reported "Hesse" on fire - what you can say about it "from the pier"). The other German contribution was to be made by the frigate "Hamburg". Although the ship is operating in the Mediterranean, it is tied up in the sea area off Lebanon. The Greek commander of the operation, Flotilla Admiral Vasileios Gryparis, rightly criticises the fact that he has too few ships at his disposal to protect the merchant ships in the Red Sea. Nevertheless, the operation has so far succeeded in escorting over 200 merchant ships through the Red Sea and destroying around 20 drones and anti-ship missiles.
The frigate F 222 Baden-Württemberg, Copyright:Bundeswehr/Julia Kelm
The consequencesThe seriousness of the attacks was demonstrated, for example, by the Liberian-flagged tanker "Olympic Spirit", which was hit by eleven missiles and two drones. In August, it was feared that there could be an oil spill because the "Sounion" with 56,000 tonnes of oil on board had caught fire as a result of an attack. Allianz Commercial reports that more than 50 merchant ships have been attacked by the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea so far. At least a dozen have been killed. The decline in traffic through the Suez Canal is assessed differently. Shipping companies speak of 40%, experts of up to 80%. The number of ships taking the route around the Cape of Good Hope has tripled. The transit around Africa extends the journey by almost two weeks. This has an impact on supply chains, prices, production processes and port utilisation. It remains to be seen whether the assembly cancellations at Tesla will really affect us.
"Ship in short supply": This was the headline in Der Spiegel at the end of October, referring to Greek Admiral Vasileios Gryparis, who is calling for at least ten warships for Operation Aspides. The commander complained that the huge operational area could not be covered with three ships. What Spiegel was not told, however, was the number of ships actually required and their necessary capabilities. If you want to have ten ships in action at all times, you need three times that number in the deployment - maintenance - training rotation. However, there are not that many warships suitable for this operation in the whole of Europe. The situation is similar with the Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA). As always, too little of everything.
SkillsThe countdown of the warships of the participating EU states is followed by disillusionment. There are ships, but they are all specialised: should they fight against submarines, attack surface targets or fend off threats from the air? A distinction must be made between whether a ship can fight in these three dimensions not only for itself, but also to protect third parties. This ability, known as "formation protection", is what makes up the mix of fleets. In the case of Operation Aspides, it's not just a question of a ship's own air defence (not "air defence", please, there's no such thing!), but of air defence, i.e. protecting third parties against attacks from the air. The Germans have three ships of the Sachsen class, the Dutch have four of the De Zeven Provinciën class, France and Italy each have two of the Horizon class, plus the two new French frigates of the FREDA class. Including? 13 units! However, none of these ships are fully prepared for the current scenario, because when these ship classes were designed 15, 20 and even 25 years ago, defence against Huthi drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles were not yet included in the specifications.
The HuthiThe Houthi militias wish death on the USA and Israel - they invoke Allah and the victory of Islam. But these so-called rebels should not be underestimated: They are not a sandal-wearing bunch of fanatics with headscarves and shotguns. We recommend reading Powder keg Red Sea. There are up to 180,000 troops, some of them well-trained and experienced, organised in a structured manner. They are supported and supplied by Iran, have access to modern technologies and are indirectly involved in the government in Yemen. In return, the Huthi illegally transport Iranian goods and thus undermine sanctions.
And now? The decision has been made, the Indo-Pacific Association will therefore take the route around the Cape of Good Hope. Der Spiegel was the first to report that the decision was made last Monday by Federal Defence Minister Pistorius. As expected, the self-confident faction of smart alecks commented indignantly. There was the reserve officer who wrote about cowardice but posted anonymously - please find the mistake. From the teacher Lämpel, who wants to push the frigate 125 into the scrap press immediately, from the alleged specialist portal that thought it had recognised the bankruptcy of the West. We won't mention your names, because you have to earn your celebrity!
We firmly believe that these same people would have been just as upset if the convoy had taken the route through the Red Sea. But then they would have written about irresponsibility and a suicide mission. We've already been through that.
Conclusion: A task force provider cannot protect itself comprehensively per se, this is due to its design. The Class 125 frigate is not an air defence ship and was built for other scenarios. What is cowardly about evading an opponent who is firing missiles and drones at you almost undisturbed, but you cannot engage him in battle? The attacker is cowardly. There are too few ships, too little ammunition, hardly any reserves and a shortage of money and personnel, not only in Germany but throughout Europe. That is worrying. The claim to protect the sea lanes and thus justify a navy is also severely undermined by this measure. The escalation must also be weighed up, as the Houthis would probably have given their all because both ships would undoubtedly have been prestige targets. The armament of the German IPD units had been provisionally upgraded in advance, from Iris-T to Mantis. In the end, the calculation of making only the navy look humble rather than the entire state probably prevailed.
After all, Boris Pistorius has not had to mourn any fallen soldiers during his time in office and certainly wants it to stay that way. It is the highest commandment of a state to protect its citizens. This also includes not endangering soldiers without good reason. And he is sure to meet with the approval of the majority of the German population, especially the families and dependants of the association's soldiers.
Author: Stephenson / Schlüter
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German
Die EGV’s sollten ursprünglich zum Selbstschutz mit RAM-Startern am Bug und Heck ausgerüstet werden. Dafür hat die Politik nie das nötige Geld zur Verfügung gestellt. Ähnlich war es bei den neuen Fregatten, bei denen aus Kostengründen nur die RAM-Starter verbaut wurden und keine weiterreichen Flugabwehr. Das sind alles haarsträubende Fehlentscheidungen unserer Politik. Die jetzige Entscheidung ist nachzuvollziehen, aber peinlich für unser Land ist es trotzdem
Sehr guter Beitrag. Volle Zustimmung. Von mir aber zwei Anmerkungen. Erstens: Europa ist gut beraten, seine Marinen für Einsätze zum Schutz der europäischen Approaches zu verstärken und die Waffenplattformen breiter aufzustellen. Zweitens: Niemand scheint auf den Gedanken zu kommen, auf die Gefahren im Roten Meer mit einem ad hoc Programm zu reagieren. Z.B. einige ältere schwimmende Einheiten nicht auszumustern, sondern mit einer aufgabengerechten Bewaffnung nachzurüsten und ins Rote Meer zu verlegen. Ein gemischter Verband aus „neuen“ und „nachgerüsteten“ Einheiten.
An dem Kommentar ist so gut wie alles falsch… wenn ein Flottenverband der deutschen Marine sich nicht gegen eine Bande von iranischen Proxy , in einem Teil des Jemen , den sie brutal beherrschen im Style der Mullah islamisten in Teheran, den Houthi Terroristen, schützen kann hatte er im Indio Pazifik welche Rolle?
Bei einem zu erwartenden Gegner wie China , Schutz der Seewege in Asien , gemeinsam und zu Gast bei Japan Taiwan Südkorea Philippinen Australien, sollte er die Inkompetenz Europas unseren Verbündeten in Asien vor Augen führen?
Das der Minister das Risiko vermeiden wollte und auch die Seeleute auf den Schiffen froh waren sicher heim zu fahren, keine Frage.
Doch billiger Ruhm in Asien , weil dort wird schon nichts passieren, aber echte Angriffe auf unsere wirtschaftlichen Lebensadern, die Seewege dorthin nicht mit sichern zu können?
Da liegt der Denkfehler beim Schreiber , bei allem Verständnis, nicht eine eh unbedeutende Marine hat sich selbst weiter gedemütigt, Deutschland wurde durch seine Marine gedemütigt, in Asien und im Roten Meer.
Liegen die Kompetenzen so spezialisiert wie beschrieben, was ja durchaus sein kann, danke cdu / csu / FDP , sollte sie das tiefe Wasser solange meiden, bis funktionierende Schiffe vorhanden oder recht kompetente Deutsche u Boote die Arbeit erledigen, auch wenn die nicht so pompös in den Häfen zur Parade taugen , mit schmucker weißer Uniform und flatternden Wimpeln, effizienter und deutscher als diese Aktion.
All correct. But please also think politically: if you want to show your colours in the Indo-Pacific region, it is incredibly negative if you tuck them (and your tail) where the public eye is directed. Note: "Specialist circles" in particular tend to view things with a limited horizon. This used to be called blindness.
The impression that the navy of one of the world's largest industrialised nations is evading a bunch of rampaging pirates is, of course, devastating. But I can understand why people don't want to risk scarce resources on such a skirmish.
This makes it all the more clear how much the West has exposed itself in military terms in recent years. In the future, 2% of GDP will not be enough.
In principle, I see the decision as the right one, as it is due to the avoidance of an avoidable risk. Nevertheless, it holds up a mirror to the West as to where the set screws are in the maritime capabilities, especially with regard to the 125s. They are working on it with Iris TSLM. Giving in to an opponent is politically different. As long as you draw the right conclusions from this, it's all fine. Conclusion: It's not cowardly, but it shows a capability gap that needs to be closed. Also for this ship.
Very good, to the point and wonderfully witty! Chapeau, everything is right!