In anticipation of our magazine "marineforum", which will be published in a few days, here is an article that was written three weeks ago but was reserved for the print edition. 

After the 85-year-old US investigative journalist Seymour Hersh tried to make everyone believe in February 2023 with unprovable causal lines that the USA could be identified as the bad guys behind the acts of sabotage against the Nord Stream pipelines, in March, according to German investigations, it was a sailing gang of specialists of Ukrainian-Polish origin who could have expertly deployed the highly explosive material at widely separated points at a water depth of around 80 metres.

New narrative

At the end of March, another version emerged regarding the presence of possible perpetrators of the explosions on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, this time about the Russian presence in the area. It clearly demonstrates that the Baltic Sea is by no means a "sea of glass", as some might think. Research by t-online/ntv now correlates targeted night-time patrols by Danish and Swedish coast guard boats on 21 September 2022 with unexplained object movements that were detected by satellite outside terrestrial radar and visual range that night. Larger units without any electronically detectable emissions (so-called "dark ships") are said to have been detected blurred by a satellite service in the previously completely "uninteresting" areas of the pipeline routes. Alarm-launched patrol boats then hurriedly travelled to this position to investigate. Nothing was found, of course, but four days later (26/09/2022) there was a bang.

The line-up

However, the Swedes followed the trail of a convoy travelling in the direction of Baltiysk/Kaliningrad. A few days earlier (a week before the explosions, as can be reconstructed from open sources), a barely noticed manoeuvre of the Russian Baltic Fleet had started from there. Among others, the frigate Yaroslav Mudryy (Neustrashimyproject 1154, 4,300 tonnes), the two Steregushchiy-Corvettes Soobrazitelny and Stoiky (project 20381, 2,200 tonnes) and the reconnaissance vessel Syzran (Alpinist class, project 503R), an inconspicuous stern trawler type built many years ago and in large numbers also in Kiev.

Other key players were the submarine support and rescue ship SS-750 the Kashtan-class (project 141, 6,200 tonnes), which serves in the Baltic Sea as the mother ship for the AS-26 submarine rescue module (project 18551, Deep Sea Recovery Vehicle, DSRV) equipped with grab arms. Also officially on board were combat swimmers from the 313th Special Forces Unit (Spetsnaz) from the Baltiysk base - elite soldiers trained for underwater explosives and sabotage operations. They were joined by two rescue tugs, which also made their way westwards along the Polish coast.

The scenario

All in dark mode - except for a few breaches of silence. All in the media slipstream of the USS Kearsage Amphibious Ready Group, which was sailing westwards after its visit to the Baltic states and also had the material and capabilities to stage acts of sabotage. All Russian units were presumably coordinated in such a way that attention was skilfully diverted and surveillance gaps in the neighbouring states were exploited to the maximum. All with travel and equipment parameters that would allow a concentration of the critical capabilities of Yaroslav Mudriyy and SS-750 at the explosion sites. And it is precisely the lengths of these ships (130 and 95 metres) that are said to have been detected by satellite in the NS1 pipeline area that night. This information was probably also the trigger for the urgent Danish-Swedish patrols. However, the incident was not alarming enough for an aerial reconnaissance, as nothing had happened (yet).

And now?

And now some fingers are pointing east again. But hardly anyone is really interested in this information, as it only appears in the media for a few days.

And now? Seymour Hersh initially attracts attention, but the longer he speaks, the more frayed his line of argument becomes. Of course, the US leadership has a vital interest in decoupling German industry from Russian gas, also in order to then preferably pump American fracked gas back into the pipelines. Of course, the White House has said that it will stop Nord Stream - but until the Kremlin turned off the tap itself, the gas continued to flow diligently.

The German investigations set the German tabloids abuzz, but only until meticulous investigations and reconstructions get lost in the absurdity of presumably secret service slime trails.

And now another variant that obviously contains all the ingredients for a sub-aquatic bang. But all the information is miraculously swallowed up by a cloud of ignorance within two days.

Who wants to know?

Don't you know, or don't you want to know? Or is it better - as in so many cases - to know rather than to know! After all, who benefits from knowing who blew up the pipelines? On the one hand, there is the fear that you could lose friends you thought were safe. On the other hand, another irrational act of "hybrid warfare" would be a rather abysmal indication of possible options on a not exactly infinite scale of escalation. So knowing who did it doesn't really help anyone. Except for sales figures and likes as the currency of short-term sensationalism.

We may speculate endlessly and still not get any further. But someone in the maritime operations centres and intelligence services - so our deep hope as outsiders - must have pixelated a relevant picture very early on. Or is the fear that we actually saw nothing and have no idea what was going on being confirmed? That would be fatal - both internally and externally, in every respect! But perhaps the Rumpelstiltskin is dancing before our eyes! Oh how good it is that nobody knows...

But it's really only a matter of time - a lot of time perhaps - before the secret is revealed.