Under the above title, the Editorial Network Germany (rnd) on 16 June 2022 about a plan put forward by former SACEUR, Admiral James George Stavridis, US Navy, to break up Russia's inhumane grain blockades in the Black Sea. He proposes providing military escort for Ukrainian civilian wheat transports in the Black Sea. In this way, it would be possible to set limits to Putin's power games and defuse the global food crisis that he has deliberately brought about.
Admiral James G. Stavridis
This would not be entirely risk-free, but "a little common sense in the midst of war" should be worth the "calculated risk", as the rnd and the nyt (New York Times) write. Stavridis is no stranger to war: he was NATO's 16th Supreme Allied Commander Europe from July 2009 to May 2013. In addition, as commander of the newly commissioned guided missile cruiser USS "Valley Forge" (Ticonderoga class, first batch of AEGIS cruisers), he took part in the first Gulf War in "Operation Earnest Will" to protect Kuwaiti oil supplies via the Persian Gulf and to break the blockade against Iran (tanker war July 1987 to September 1988). So Stavridis knows what he is talking about. At the time, it was not about confrontation with Iran - it was about "maintaining freedom of navigation in international waters" and "avoiding misunderstandings".
Read more in the original text of the rnd by Matthias Koch:
Things ended well. As with many maritime conflicts in recent decades, the situation calmed down due to the sheer presence of the USA at sea.
Stavridis is now recommending a similar approach to Russia: Vladimir Putin has no right to block Ukrainian wheat transporters that are currently stuck in Odessa, many with millions of tonnes of perishable goods on board. Under no circumstances should the world accept the fact that Putin is illegally claiming sovereignty over the seas. "The democratic allies should now prepare a mission modelled on 'Earnest Will'," wrote Stavridis.
The admiral's word carries weight. During the Obama era, Stavridis was the highest-ranking soldier in NATO (Supreme Allied Commander Europe). He is regarded as an officer with an unusually high level of political sensitivity. For a while, he was once being discussed as a possible vice-presidential candidate for Hillary Clinton, before her candidacy in 2016.
Saying yes to a "calculated risk"?
The Stavridis plan for Odessa has been circulating for a fortnight. It was initially only discussed in military circles, but is now increasingly playing a role in the political debates of NATO states.
French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, has also declared that he wants to break the blockade of Odessa and is considering having the UN take control. Turkey, which controls access to the Black Sea, does not appear to be averse to the idea either.
On 14 June, the "New York Times"-Cocolumnist Bret Stephens to stop just talking about the issue and get down to business: "The US should be prepared to challenge the Russian naval blockade of Odessa by escorting cargo ships to and from the harbour."
A coalition probably without Germany
A calculated risk? Many countries in the West will cringe at this. In Germany, for example, whose talk shows are still busy every evening with navel-gazing debates about the pros and cons of arms deliveries, the debate about breaking the Odessa blockade has not even started yet.
Nor does Stavridis have Germany's participation in mind. The admiral names three organisational options for breaking the Odessa blockade. This would be feasible under the direction of the United Nations, NATO or a coalition of the willing led by the USA. The latter is probably the most likely option. Stavridis sees Great Britain, France, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria as possible participants.
According to Stavridis, Russia must be informed in advance. It must be emphasised that none of the states involved want hostilities with Russian ships. The only goal is freedom of navigation. "Moscow will probably rage," believes Stavridis. But the probability of a Russian attack on Nato warships in international waters is low.
A bit of common sense in the midst of war
The Stavridis plan includes Ukraine initially tolerating a mine clearance operation off the coast of Odessa. In the middle of the war, there would suddenly be a return to reason, at least in part. With the resumption of wheat exports, the impending food crises in Africa could be dampened. In addition, Ukraine could once again generate income on the world market.
However, it remains unclear whether Russia would interpret all this as a humiliation - and ultimately open fire on Nato ships escorting wheat transporters.
In this case, Stavridis advises a "proportional use of force", a proportionate use of Western armed force in the opposite direction. Thus speaks an admiral who is not afraid - and who still sees his fleet as superior.
An exchange of fire between Russian and American warships could end up posing risks for the whole of humanity. But even a Putin who is unopposed is a threat to the world.
So much for Matthias Koch in the text of the rnd
The shocks of the Russian war in Ukraine are being felt around the world and are exacerbating existing conflicts and problems. This article is still concerned with the discussion about possible solutions. A "level-headed view" of the situation in the Black Sea will soon no longer be bearable - then solutions will have to be found.
Deutschlandfunk (DLF)
In a DLF radio programme On 9 June, Johannes Peters from the Institute for Maritime Security at the University of Kiel argued in favour of UN-led mine clearance off the Ukrainian ports by the international community. The threat of global famine makes the "bilateral" problem a global one - with a certain compulsion to act.
Because a NATO-led mine clearance operation, which could be organised at short notice via the Standing Maritime Groups, would hardly be accepted by Russia - just like an EU-led clearance campaign - only a broad-based international task force would probably be an option, which could hardly be rejected by the aggressor states and their leadership. Even if Ukraine's "inability to export" does not in fact constitute a blockade in the legal sense due to the prevention of free maritime traffic in the Black Sea, Russia is trying to negotiate its agreement to solutions by having the international community make advance payments by easing the sanctions imposed.
Risk
However, this still unspecific demand will be increased by Russia to the extent that part of the Black Sea would then cease to be a conflict zone - which cannot be in the Kremlin's interests at all. On the other hand, in the current situation (mid-June), an amphibious landing operation by the Black Sea Fleet in the western region near Odessa seems unlikely, because the Russian leadership does not have the resources for such a highly complex and costly operation, as they are obviously all being deployed in eastern Ukraine.
Reuters reports
Interestingly enough Reutersthat Russia had offered a "safe passage" out of the Black Sea harbours for these grain cargoes in mid-June, but that Russia was not responsible for setting up any corridors in coastal waters. Either clear the Ukrainian mines or guide the ships around the minefields. At least according to Vassily Nebenza, Russia's ambassador to the United Nations.
In line with this, Turkey, for its part, had suggested that the grain freighters could be routed around the sea minefields through open channels, as clearing the mines would take a long time. Ukraine is familiar with these "channels" and Ukrainian units should accordingly guide the civilian freighters through them. However, Ankara is waiting for clearer answers from Moscow regarding this UN plan, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. In the event of successful negotiations, Istanbul is prepared to take on a responsible role in an "observer mechanism" - whatever that means. In any case, Ankara still has functioning relations with both warring parties.
The United Nations said that the plan had been drawn up with Turkey and was now awaiting approval from Ukraine.
On the Ukrainian side, however, there is a danger that both a passage through mine-free channels and mine-clearing in Ukrainian territorial waters would expose its own harbours and their seaward protection by minefields and invite Russia to attack. The military leadership in Kiev advises against this.
And what next?
The issue has a number of corners that do not yet fit together. While people are starving, many more diplomatic talks will probably have to be held, without assuming goodwill on all sides. Moscow repeatedly emphasises that it is precisely the sanctions against Russia that are hampering Ukrainian grain exports. No - they have no responsibility for the global food crisis. A perfidious logic - as long as prices are rising! Time is still playing in Putin's favour - but at some point it will run out.
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