Security is precaution - Commentary on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis

The saying "May you live in interesting times" is attributed to a Chinese proverb - and these are indeed interesting times in which we live! Chancellor Olaf Scholz's cabinet has been in office for less than six months before the new teams in the Chancellery, Federal Foreign Office (AA) and Ministry of Defence (BMVg) have to navigate a serious security crisis in and for Europe in close coordination with their transatlantic and European allies.

The media image is dominated by the Russian combat vehicles deployed in a horseshoe shape around eastern Ukraine. However, this is not the end of Moscow's military endeavours; they represent the - perhaps largest and most visible - part of a holistic approach from the military toolbox. An overview of Russian naval activities - not only in the Black Sea - can be found at here at MarineForum online.

Such crises never occur at a favourable time, of course, but the timing is particularly unfavourable for the new federal government: not only does it have to deal with the challenge posed by Moscow diplomatically and politically in the here and now, it also has to set the fiscal course for Berlin's security policy ambitions for the coming years up to 2026 with two federal budgets. This is a very special challenge given the impression that Berlin actually shies away from security policy decisions and makes armaments decisions primarily on the basis of economic policy.

The Federal Ministry of Defence wants €53,760 billion for (2023), €55,439 billion for (2024), €57,285 billion for (2025) and €59,117 billion for (2026). This represents an additional requirement of over €37 billion by 2026 compared to the previous financial planning. This, in turn, is due to the status quo, as security policy consequences for Berlin from the Ukraine crisis are only now emerging (or not). Is the current threat posed by Moscow enough to wake Berlin from its slumber, or will it fall back into old patterns once the crisis is over? Against the backdrop of an overstretched defence budget and a strained federal budget, how can these security requirements for Germany and Europe be financed? And are these efforts organisationally and fiscally feasible in view of the dramatic demographic development?

In the upcoming budget preparation, Berlin will show how seriously it takes Moscow's sabre-rattling in eastern Ukraine and its own military and security policy capabilities. Security is a precautionary business: it forms the foundation and credibility for dialogue and diplomacy. Talking about what needs to be done now also reveals what has not been done in recent years. So perhaps it is a good thing that the new team in Berlin is realising this early on in its term of office.