Taiwan is at the centre of the Sino-American rivalry

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Regardless of the outcome of the US elections, China is preparing for further conflicts with the US and is contributing to the escalation of a Cold War. Despite its new aggressiveness, China has so far remained defensive. Initiatives such as the New Silk Road and Made in China 2025 are aimed at reducing dependence on Western sales markets and products, which can be seen as a defensive measure against the increasing economic strangulation of the USA in the field of high technology.

China is well aware of its greater vulnerability compared to the United States. It consumes more food than it can produce itself and is dependent on oil and other exports from the Gulf region. The increased focus on the South China Sea is partly due to the fact that a large proportion of these essential goods - food and energy - are transported to China by sea.

Beijing's strong relationship with Moscow is partly due to Russia's ability to supply energy overland. A blockade of Chinese supplies through the Strait of Malacca by the United States and its allies is one of the Chinese leadership's greatest fears.

China's development of an ocean-going navy, a blue-water navy, reinforces the concerns of the USA and leads to a negative spiral in which every measure taken by the USA triggers a stronger response from China and vice versa.

Many American strategists believe that the United States must act now to maintain its supremacy in the Pacific and argue for more decisive action. Elbridge Colby is a prominent proponent of this view, openly arguing that the US must fight and defeat China to maintain its supremacy. Colby was Assistant Secretary of Defence for Strategy and Force Development in the Trump administration and played a key role in refocusing the National Defence Strategy on the challenges posed by China.

Colby's staunch support for a war with China sets him apart, but others seem to be catching up as well. US President Joe Biden has repeatedly warned against China and declared that the United States is committed to protecting Taiwan. He promised to send military support in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Biden and other members of both the Republican and Democratic parties have put themselves in a difficult position with Taiwan. Because of all their assurances to protect Taiwan, it will be difficult to distance themselves from them if a Taiwanese government insists on honouring them and confronts China militarily.

How might a war over Taiwan unfold? In the West, it is often assumed that it would begin with an invasion by sea. The Chinese are certainly preparing for this scenario if they see no other choice. However, China's amphibious transport capabilities are limited.

After all, China has other options at its disposal. A blockade of Taiwan, for example, could have huge economic consequences. According to a report by the US State Department, a blockade by China would cause annual losses totalling 2.5 trillion dollars.

For Xi Jinping and his predecessors, Taiwan is a key legitimisation issue and reunification is essential. However, China currently has many other challenges to overcome. The Biden administration hopes that Xi will back down. For now, China will try to avoid war, but for how much longer?

Military action should never be seen as inevitable. Nothing is predetermined and politics decides. Western democracies should not see war with China as a solution either. Europe must decide whether it wants to be the USA's sidekick or work to prevent another confrontation between two great powers.

Dr Josef Braml is an expert on the USA and European Director of the Trilateral Commission. His most recent book, co-authored with Mathew Burrows, "Die Traumwandler. How China and the USA are sliding into a new world war".