The breadbasket of Europe: Ukraine

Blocked sea routes could trigger famines

The war is not regional, it has an impact on the whole of Europe, indeed the whole world. In particular, the fact that Ukraine was the second largest grain exporter in the world before the war needs to be examined more closely. According to the figures for the 2019-2020 marketing year, Ukraine has become the second largest exporter in the world after the USA. It is also about global food security. Ukraine ranks second in barley exports, fourth in corn exports and fifth in wheat exports. In 2019, 65.4 million tonnes of grain and pulses were harvested from an area of 15.3 million hectares.

Ukraine has the most fertile soils in the world, the so-called "Black earth". Around 70 per cent of Ukraine's 603,000 square kilometres of land are used for agriculture, of which more than 55 per cent is used for arable farming. And this is not just any farmland, but some of the best in the world. The "black soil" or chernozem (from the Russian "chernyj", black), which contains a high proportion of humus or decomposed plant material and important plant nutrients.

Before the war, Ukraine was competing with Germany for the large importing countries in North Africa and the Middle East, which are increasingly dependent on imports due to high population growth and climate-restricted growing conditions.

Ukraine stands to lose 6 billion dollars due to blocked harbours

As reported by Reuters, Ukraine is facing revenue losses of 6 billion dollars or more, as the blockade of ports by the Russian armed forces is preventing exports. Millions of tonnes of wheat and maize destined for Egypt, Turkey and Yemen are stuck. Some of the loaded ships are stuck, unable to leave because crews have fled or pilots can no longer guide the captains out. Around 100 foreign-flagged ships are affected. Due to the high costs, only a fraction of the grain is shipped by rail; 98 % of the grain is transported by sea.

Rail is not an alternative

As the Black Sea Fleet has sealed off the southern coast, grain exports have practically come to a standstill since the start of the war on 24 February. At the end of the 2021/22 season, 20 million tonnes of wheat and corn would have to be exported at an average price of around 300 dollars per tonne. That is half of Ukraine's total export revenue. Supply chains are also disrupted because bridges and trains have been destroyed by bombs and many grocery shops and warehouses are empty. This exacerbates the problem even more due to the coronavirus crisis. Ukrainian farmers also do not have enough fertiliser for their winter wheat and there is a lack of diesel for their tractors. There is the threat of a year of crop failure if no seed arrives. Although they have enough grain and food reserves to survive for a year, they will not be able to export. The war in Ukraine is changing the global situation. Stopping wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine would lead to shortages in many emerging and developing countries. There are fears of a humanitarian catastrophe.