Wish list with cancellation potential

With the 2035+ target vision, the Navy is presenting its vision of a long-term organisation. Not all projects will be realised - for various reasons.

The navy's hopes for the one or other, often long overdue, renewal were pinned on the Bundeswehr special fund. However, the expectations of the smallest branch of the armed forces were muted enough. Most wearers of the blue scarf did not assume that the number of flagstaffs would increase significantly or that the capability potential would change significantly as a result of the Bundeswehr Special Fund.

With the publication of a target image for the navy from 2035, the inspector of the navy is now going on the offensive. He is looking ahead to a fleet on the water and in the air that is not "retreaded" but is more clearly orientated towards the emerging threats. After a period of doubt, there are glimmers of hope on the horizon - provided that the necessary resources are made available.

In the years after 2035, the fleet will have a target structure of 15 frigates, six to nine Type 130 corvettes, six to nine 212CD submarines, eight maritime patrol vessels, up to 48 helicopters, three fleet service boats, three fleet tankers, three task force supply vessels and six new types of support platforms.

A Future Combat Surface System with up to 18 compact platforms is to form the surface warfare portfolio with strike capability, particularly in marginal seas, together with corvettes. Up to twelve mine countermeasure units are planned. The equipment with unmanned systems for mine hunting, the design of the so-called mine countermeasures toolbox, is currently open. The fact is that from 2035, the navy's mine defence platforms will have a broader design than previous mine countermeasures vehicles. In addition to their original task, they will be used for seabed warfare and underwater reconnaissance.

Unmanned supporters

Maritime reconnaissance aircraft, mine warfare vehicles and submarines, as well as helicopters, are supported by unmanned systems: the P-8A Poseidon and the Maritime Airborne Warfare System (MAWS), which is currently still at the project stage, are complemented by six drones, the Sea Tiger helicopters by 22 flying drones and the submarines by six underwater drones (Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicle). However, these, as well as the units of the Future Combat Surface System, still require intensive technical evaluation and specific considerations with regard to unmanned or autonomous operation and the use of weapons. Discussions in this regard are already well known from road transport.

The number of unmanned mine defence systems and the mine defence toolbox for the minesweeper flotilla is still being determined.

Compared to the previous 2031 plan (derived from the NATO Defence Plan), the 2035+ naval target structure provides for the same number of 15 frigates. However, the composition is different. Six frigates 127 are planned in the surface and air defence task area. They are to succeed the SACHSEN-class frigates (F 124). Six frigates of the future class 126 are designated for underwater naval defence.

The target scope of frigate 125 will be reduced by one compared to the previous planning. From 2035, three frigates of this type should be able to be deployed primarily for international crisis management tasks.

The two current class 704 fuel supply vessels RHÖN and SPESSART will be replaced by three type 707 fleet tankers.
Between six and nine corvettes 130 with the technical status of boats 6 to 10, i.e. the second batch, are planned. Up to 18 Future Combat Surface Systems (FCSS) are to be realised to complement them. No statements are currently being made regarding their capability profile. However, some specifications are emerging: The hard-to-detect, flexibly deployable platforms should be able to be operated with a small number of personnel or even unmanned. They should be available for surface warfare as well as for action on land. Their technical design would be similar to that of earlier high-speed missile boats.

The operational platforms of the Navy's special forces are not recognised in the document.
The flying fleet. The Marine 2035+ target image lists the P-8A Poseidon and MAWS types among the maritime patrol aircraft. This is an indication that the Franco-German project is being pursued further, at least in Rostock and Nordholz. With regard to helicopters, it is noted that the number of Sea Tiger helicopters is still to be determined. Previously, 31 NH 90s were planned. 17 Sea Lion will fulfil their diverse tasks as multi-purpose helicopters. All in all, the naval aircraft will experience an increase: up to 22 flying drones are to supplement the Sea Tiger on-board helicopter. A total of 28 unmanned flying systems will therefore be stationed in Nordholz.

Six to nine 212CD submarines are planned for the 2035+ target. So far, two of these boats from the German-Norwegian joint project are under contract for the German Navy. The document makes no statement on how the submarine target structure will be finalised. Six Class 212A boats are available, of which the four units in the first batch (U 31 to U 34) are in need of a long-delayed modernisation push.

In the minesweeper flotilla, a target size of up to twelve units, supplemented by a number of unmanned systems still to be determined, seems realistic.

According to the 2035+ target scenario, there will still be three task force tenders. A new approach is planned for the successor to the Type 404 tender. Six support units are to ensure organic logistics and operational support. The naval command has its sights set on a modular platform that can be adapted to the respective tasks. With the introduction of a third fleet tanker, the navy could finally close the gap that accompanies every maintenance phase.

No statement has been made in the target vision regarding the due replacement of the outdated (harbour) support services, the tugs, residential boats and harbour tankers. However, the Procurement Task Force is currently working on replacing the three sea tugs FEHMARN, SPIEKEROOG and WANGEROOGE with two second-hand AHTS tugs. The first tender has so far only produced one hit, which is awaiting a decision following an inspection by a fact-finding team. A new market survey should then bring a second platform of this type into the fleet by the summer.

In addition to the naval command centre in Rostock, another alternative headquarters has been announced that can take over command tasks during a cold start. For command and control at sea, "ad hoc operational staffs are envisaged" without describing them in detail. The infantry or land-based forces required to protect coastal areas are also mentioned without any level of detail.

Precision landing at the turn of an era

In the target picture for the navy from 2035, the threat once again becomes the yardstick. The navy opens the door to multi-domain operations. Seabed warfare finds its way into the target structure. The future fleet structure is characterised by two things: firstly, the consistent application of the 3:1 ratio. The navy wants to be able to ensure the necessary availability during operations. This goes right down to the design of the unmanned systems. Drones organise the fight under and above water as sensors and weapon carriers with their manned "twins". It is becoming apparent that the path from "bigger and bigger and more expensive" is leading to a cheaper swarm. Which does not mean that it will be less expensive.

In the case of frigates, the navy is specialising in air defence (F 127) and submarine hunting (F 126). Technological progress manifests itself in the planning of modular support units that can be adapted to the situation and mission. The text passages and the cancellation of a frigate 125 show that the navy is taking current personnel recruitment into account and is also moving away from the multi-crew model.

The turnaround could materialise not only through the planned 63 to 70 floating naval units, including larger unmanned systems. This does not include the platforms to be procured for the naval battalion. If this happens, the "trough of shrinkage", as former Navy inspector Vice Admiral (ret.) Andreas Krause once put it when signing the contract for the second batch of Corvette 130, will hopefully be over in ten years.

Certainly, question marks cannot be dispelled at this point in time. This is due to the nature of the document: As the title suggests, it is a target image.

Above all hangs the question of affordability. But not alone. The design of the six (!) frigates 127 will not only occupy the housekeepers. German, European and American naval shipbuilders are already in competition. And it's not just about the hardware, but also about the command and weapon deployment systems. The F127 is designed to meet the requirements of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD). Grumbling can be heard from the Netherlands, with whom a joint development was previously on the cards.

Another example is the corvette 130, and it will be interesting to see whether the second batch will actually be expanded by up to four units. Further work will have to be done on the fundamental issue of mine warfare. New training programmes and forms of training, including simulation, must be developed for the teaming of manned and unmanned systems. For outsiders, there are also questions about (re)building naval expertise in the development of command and weapon deployment systems.

Much will depend on the willingness of the German government to provide the budget funds required for procurement and operation on a permanent basis. And on the ability of German industry to deliver within the required time, financial and quality framework.

Hans-Uwe Mergener