Once again: the 500-ship navy

CNO Gilday: We need a navy with over 500 ships

The Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), Admiral Michael Gilday, said in San Diego, California at the WEST 2022 conference, jointly hosted by the AFCEA and the U.S. Naval Institute, that the U.S. Navy would need a fleet of more than 500 ships to meet its obligations under the soon-to-be-released National Defence Strategy.

"We need 12 aircraft carriers. We need a strong amphibious force with nine large amphibious ships and another 19 or 20 LPDs to support them. Perhaps 30 or more smaller amphibious ships to support the coastal maritime regiments ... 60 destroyers and probably 50 frigates, 70 attack submarines and a dozen ballistic missile submarines, about 100 support ships and probably about 150 unmanned ships in the future".

According to Gilday's list, this force would comprise around 513 ships. The numbers Gilday cited are largely consistent with a notional ceiling included in the trimmed long-term shipbuilding plan for fiscal year 2022. The congressionally mandated force structure assessment will be included in the fiscal year 2024 budget. However, the details have largely been kept under wraps as the Pentagon continues to work on its next national defence strategy.

Over the past three years, the future structure of the navy has been subject to various analyses. Towards the end of the Trump administration, an ambitious fleet plan was presented. The Biden administration cancelled the plan shortly after the president took office, after which the Navy had to reexamine it under new leadership at the Pentagon with a stagnant budget.

In essence, it is about how to fight in the future in order to be able to operate optimised and networked over huge distances across several oceans. This was practised in so-called Large Scale Exercises (in 2021). The Navy and Marines are also testing carrier battle groups and amphibious ready groups with complicated combat scenarios. The testing of unmanned ships is also part of this.

Gilday's comments are in response to reports that the Biden administration is delaying the allocation of funds to the Pentagon for 2023.

The topic of the "500-ship Navy" is not new, but is repeatedly invoked in the US Navy. As early as 1980, "Proceedings" devoted its cover to the topic. In January 1986, an article appeared in Proceedings in which author J.F. Lehmann considered that, based on geography, Alliances and the Soviet threat, the "size of the Navy" had to be increased to 600 ships in order to fulfil its obligations. A certain Commander McGrath even managed to place an article in the January 2007 issue of Proceedings entitled "1000 Ship Navy and Maritime Strategy".

Sources: USNI News, LaGrone, Shelbourne, own research