Areas closed for shooting practice
The Russian Navy has announced training areas for a large part of the Black Sea and most of the Sea of Azov, effectively restricting shipping to Ukrainian commercial ports.
Commercial shipping and air traffic are advised to avoid the designated areas from 13 to 19 February. One area covers the northern entrance to the Kerch Strait, which could cut off Ukrainian harbours on the Sea of Azov from shipping for the duration of the exercise. This includes the harbours of Mariupol, Berdyansk and Henichesk. Russia has blocked the strait in the past due to disputes over maritime sovereignty.
On the Black Sea side, two training areas extend from the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, one in the west towards Odessa and one in the south-west towards Bulgaria. The western exercise area leaves only a narrow strip of coastal waters connecting Odessa with the Bosporus.
The announcement of the training area was published around the same time as the arrival of three Russian Navy Ropukha-class armoured landing ships in the Black Sea. Three more are in transit through the Bosporus and are expected to arrive later in the day on Wednesday. These ships complement the seven existing amphibious assault ships of the Black Sea Fleet and are intended to play a supporting role in the event of a possible invasion of Ukraine. Three of these ships had already been closely followed as they left the Baltic Sea.
In the meantime, several units of the Russian Navy from the Pacific Fleet and the Northern Fleet are on a training mission in the Mediterranean. The flagship of the Northern Fleet, the Slava-class cruiser "Marshal Ustinov", entered the Mediterranean on Monday. The cruiser Varyag, the destroyer Admiral Tributs and the oil tanker Boris Butoma reached the eastern Mediterranean last week via the Suez Canal.
According to UNCLOS 1982 (also in force for Russia from 1994), "warning areas" on the high seas with firing exercises are legally permissible in peacetime, but only in the "clear range procedure", i.e. if nobody is at risk. "Restricted areas" are (also) permitted in peacetime for a limited period within 12 miles. On the high seas (beyond 12 nm), restricted areas are permitted (under customary law) in the event of war. All warning and restricted areas must be announced internationally, which has been done here.
The Russ. The Russian rhetoric ("warning" and "closures") is formulated in such a way (or the media convey it in such a way) that civilian shipping is actually being massively deterred. The result is a blockade-like situation in the Black and Azov Seas. Practically no maritime trade with Ukraine and with the Russian harbours in the region due to the high risk. Russian harbours in the region due to the high risk. If you have good nerves, you can still travel to Odessa or Mariupol as long as there is no war; if this practice catches on, similar warning and restricted areas are to be feared elsewhere (e.g. Baltic Sea).
Source: The Maritime Executive / private research
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Maybe he's just bluffing so that everyone will happily give him Crimea later. But if he does get serious, he will become the Hitler of the 21st century and hopefully end up that way.
R ⭐️