Warning from the naval command

Negotiations to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled. On 19 May 2026, several media reported that the US President had cancelled the attacks planned for that day due to serious negotiations. On 20 May 2026, the IRGC in turn threatened to launch more far-reaching attacks if the USA fired on Iran again. Nevertheless, the ceasefire unilaterally announced by the USA and not confirmed by Iran remains in place.

In the last reporting period, there were again isolated drone attacks on the UAE. The Barakah nuclear power plant was hit on 17 May 2026; there was a fire but no radiation leak. The US naval blockade of Iranian harbours and coastal waters remains active. On 19 May 2026, the US armed forces seized the tanker SKYWAVE between Indonesia and Sri Lanka. Prior to this, Iran had also boarded the „research vessel“ HUI CHUAN from its anchorage off Fujairah on 14 May 2026 and transferred it to Iranian waters. On 18 May 2026, the US Treasury Department extended the exemption for sanctioned Russian oil already on tankers for a third time for 30 days. Furthermore, the ceasefire concluded between Lebanon and Israel on 17 April 2026 was broken several times by mutual attacks.

A danger from imaginary or actual mines in the area of the Strait of Hormuz can still not be ruled out. Interference from AIS and GPS is still present, but significantly reduced compared to March. The interference is irregular and localised.

Location

Since the start of the war, a total of 34 merchant ships have been attacked in the Persian Gulf, some of which have suffered severe damage. There have been no confirmed attacks against merchant ships since the last situation on 13 May 2026.

With the SKYWAVE, the USA has seized the third ship in total, alongside MAJESTIC X and TIFANI, in the Indian Ocean as part of Iran's naval blockade. In addition, four ships (TOUSKA, HASNA, SEASTAR III and SEVDA) have already been shot at by the USA in order to enforce the naval blockade. In addition to the HUI CHUAN, Iran has also seized the JIN LI, EPAMINONDAS and the MSC FRANCESCA. As in the last reporting period, the ships EUREKA, HONOUR 25 and SWARD remain in the hands of Somali pirates. The German Navy Shipping Centre in Hamburg has issued an explicit warning against pirate attacks. There have been no attacks on harbours or maritime infrastructure since March.

German ships

According to the Naval Shipping Directorate, which refers to AIS data and shipping companies as a source, there are currently 158 ships with a German connection in the area, 46 of which are in the Persian Gulf. So far, 3 ships with a German connection have been attacked.

The current situation for shipping in the Persian Gulf and neighbouring waters continues to be characterised by a massive threat. The ceasefire unilaterally announced by the USA and not confirmed by Iran is currently holding. Nevertheless, both countries appear to have plans ready for renewed attacks. The US Navy's naval blockade continues to actively prevent Iranian ships from breaching it. The operational risk of technical disruptions remains high. Even if the massive GPS manipulations in the entire sector have decreased, a risk remains.

In addition, it is assumed that Iran still has sufficient missiles and drones, especially for attacks in the Persian Gulf. In addition, the IRGC has clearly expressed its capabilities and willingness to launch attacks in the last week. The threat to ships remains.

Conclusion

The risk situation for ships and crews remains complex. Operationally, the situation remains critical due to the entrenched blockades and the possibility of further attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The potential threat to the Persian Gulf and neighbouring regions must continue to be taken very seriously.

Text/illustration: Naval Command from 22/05/2026